So, I’m chatting with a buddy. We are doing our best to maintain Social Distancing, wearing masks and sincere in our determination to avoid spraying potentially contagious droplets on one another.
My buddy opened up with “I am very worried about the stock market if Joe Biden gets elected”. (“Market Worry” is not what we want our clients to experience.) Of course, just the day before, a conversation with someone else opened with the same worry about Donald Trump’s potential re-election.
To assist our buddy with calming the ‘Market Worry’ surrounding the upcoming Presidential Election I produced a slide titled ‘Markets Have Rewarded Long-Term Investors Under a Variety of Presidents’. Upon even cursory examination it is revealed that, in spite of whether our President is a Republican or a Democrat, markets have trended up!
For further information – you might enjoy clicking through to this link:
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OUR VIEW: Any prediction that the market will Decline (Or Advance) if a Democrat or Republican is elected is a Speculation with no basis in historical evidence.
My hope is that I was able reduce my buddy’s ‘Market Worry,’ which she cannot control, by pointing out that she has planned for market volatility by controlling what she can control. For retired investors, that could look like setting aside several years of expected ‘Cash Withdrawal Need’ in Short-Term, Investment-Grade, Globally-Diversified Fixed Income.
Think about it: If an investor were to set aside 15 years of spending in Fixed Income at age 65, and let the rest of her portfolio ride in equities, she would not have to worry much about short term stock market volatility. As the enclosed chart indicates, investors have historically had a good shot at positive returns over long periods of time.
My buddy then commented “I Feel Better About Not Outliving My Money”! Hooray – Mission Accomplished!
Trusting you are living your life well, maintaining Social Distance and, finding comfort in a Purposefully Derived portfolio, I remain
On Behalf of the Firm,
Tom Warburton
Author: Warburton Capital
Jonathan Hall is the CEO and President of Warburton Capital Management and a member of the Board of Directors. Jonathan has been a member of the Warburton Capital team and a principal of the firm since 2013.
As President of Warburton Capital, he manages day-to-day operations, leads the firm’s advisory and operations teams, and directs efforts to attract and retain talent. As a member of the firm’s Board of Directors, he works with the firm’s Founding Principal and the Board of Directors to derive and implement strategic decisions regarding the direction of the firm such as mergers and acquisitions, new lines of business, and business development.
Jonathan is a CERTIFIED FINANCIAL PLANNER™ Practitioner; he guides his clients through a life of financial purpose, helping them to define and achieve their goals as a fee-only fiduciary financial advisor.
Jonathan earned a B.A. in History, a B.A. in Government, and an M.B.A. from Oral Roberts University, where he served as President of the ORU Graduate Business Association. He further earned a Master of Science in Financial Services (M.S.F.S.) with an emphasis in Financial Planning from Saint Joseph’s University.
Jonathan has served as an Adjunct Professor of Finance at ORU teaching Personal Financial Planning and Capital Markets. Jonathan was recognized in 2016 as one of Tulsa’s “40 Under 40.” Jonathan is a graduate of Leadership Tulsa, Class 51. From 2020-2021, he served as the President of the Board of Directors for Emergency Infant Services and had served on that Board since 2014. He served from 2023-2024 as a Trustee at the Tulsa School of Arts and Sciences (TSAS).
In 2019, City Councilor Phil Lakin appointed him to the City of Tulsa Sales Tax Overview Committee, representing District 8. In 2020, he was appointed by Governor J. Kevin Stitt to the Oklahoma Commission on Children and Youth, serving as a member representing Business & Industry. In 2022, Governor Stitt re-appointed him to that Commission, and he was elected Secretary by his peers.
Jonathan and his wife of 12 years have three children and a beloved family Golden Retriever.
Certified Financial Planner Board of Standards Inc. owns the certification marks CFP®, Certified Financial Planner™ and federally registered CFP (with flame design) in the U.S., which it awards to individuals who successfully complete CFP Board’s initial and ongoing certification requirements.
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