Why Chasing Peaks and Dodging Dips Rarely Works, and What Actually Does
Market timing is seductive. The idea that we can sidestep downturns and ride rallies with just the right instinct or insight feels smart. But here is the hard truth: trying to time the market often backfires. History shows that jumping out before a drop or back in before a surge tends to erode wealth, not build it.
This paper explores what drives people to try timing the market, what we have seen firsthand over decades of real-world investing, and what the research tells us about what actually works. Rather than follow emotional impulses or media cycles, we advocate for a steadier path: staying fully invested through a well-structured, evidence-informed portfolio.
At Warburton Capital, we do not believe in crystal balls. We believe in planning, discipline, and principles that hold up in real life.
