Warburton Capital Management
The Markets Do What The Markets Do
So a buddy comes in and asks “What has the Market done lately”?
- This seems like a very simple question, however, there are a lot of devils in the details of a comprehensive answer.
- To begin with, which ‘Market’ do we want to talk about and
- Over what time period? (For purposes of this discussion, we will analyze Q2 2018.)
Most people think about the S&P 500 as The Market, however, the S&P 500 is merely a subset of Large Cap Stocks trading on the US Stock Exchanges.
- To truly understand the US Market a thoughtful investor must also examine US Small Cap and the other bifurcations characterized as Value Stocks and Growth Stocks.
- Then, for some real fun, the same set of analytics can be applied to International Developed Stock Markets and International Not-Developed (Emerging) Stock Markets.
- From this query we can further drill down to individual countries.
To be comprehensive, the foregoing only applies to Stocks or Equities. How about Bonds?
- Bond analysis is even more complicated as there are many distinct buckets of Bonds worthy of consideration and discussion
- US Bonds vs Foreign Bonds
- Within both US and Foreign Bond Markets we have Short-Term Bonds, Intermediate-Term Bonds and Long-Term Bonds
- Finally, within both US and Foreign Bond Markets, we can look at Government Bonds, Highly Rated Investment Grade Corporate Bonds and the many tranches of Bond rated lower than Investment Grade
Thought we were finished?
- How about the Currency Markets?
- How about the Commodity Markets?
So, in answer to my buddy who wants to what has The Market been up to lately, I have one response:
- The Markets moved in many mysterious and unpredictable ways.
- Who would have expected REIT’s to be a top performer last quarter with a 9.99% return?
- Who would have expected Israel to be the top performing Developed Market performer?
- Who would have expected Colombia to be the top performing Emerging Market performer?
- Who would have expected the US Dollar to strengthen 5.07% against the Euro?
- Who would have expected Brent Crude Oil to gain 16.18% or Soybeans to decline -18.40%
There just isn’t much that is predictable over the short run
If you would like some numbers in lieu of the narrative, please Click Here for a granular look at each of the above and more.
On behalf of Warburton Capital, I remain
Yours truly,
Tom Warburton
Author: Warburton Capital
Jonathan Hall is the CEO and President of Warburton Capital Management and a member of the Board of Directors. Jonathan has been a member of the Warburton Capital team and a principal of the firm since 2013.
As President of Warburton Capital, he manages day-to-day operations, leads the firm’s advisory and operations teams, and directs efforts to attract and retain talent. As a member of the firm’s Board of Directors, he works with the firm’s Founding Principal and the Board of Directors to derive and implement strategic decisions regarding the direction of the firm such as mergers and acquisitions, new lines of business, and business development.
Jonathan is a CERTIFIED FINANCIAL PLANNER™ Practitioner; he guides his clients through a life of financial purpose, helping them to define and achieve their goals as a fee-only fiduciary financial advisor.
Jonathan earned a B.A. in History, a B.A. in Government, and an M.B.A. from Oral Roberts University, where he served as President of the ORU Graduate Business Association. He further earned a Master of Science in Financial Services (M.S.F.S.) with an emphasis in Financial Planning from Saint Joseph’s University.
Jonathan has served as an Adjunct Professor of Finance at ORU teaching Personal Financial Planning and Capital Markets. Jonathan was recognized in 2016 as one of Tulsa’s “40 Under 40.” Jonathan is a graduate of Leadership Tulsa, Class 51. From 2020-2021, he served as the President of the Board of Directors for Emergency Infant Services and had served on that Board since 2014. He served from 2023-2024 as a Trustee at the Tulsa School of Arts and Sciences (TSAS).
In 2019, City Councilor Phil Lakin appointed him to the City of Tulsa Sales Tax Overview Committee, representing District 8. In 2020, he was appointed by Governor J. Kevin Stitt to the Oklahoma Commission on Children and Youth, serving as a member representing Business & Industry. In 2022, Governor Stitt re-appointed him to that Commission, and he was elected Secretary by his peers.
Jonathan and his wife of 12 years have three children and a beloved family Golden Retriever.
Certified Financial Planner Board of Standards Inc. owns the certification marks CFP®, Certified Financial Planner™ and federally registered CFP (with flame design) in the U.S., which it awards to individuals who successfully complete CFP Board’s initial and ongoing certification requirements.
View all posts by Warburton Capital
